Estimating correlation between multivariate longitudinal data in the presence of heterogeneity

Abstract Background Estimating correlation coefficients among outcomes is one of the most important analytical tasks in epidemiological and clinical research. Availability of multivariate longitudinal data presents a unique opportunity to assess joint evolution of outcomes over time. Bivariate linear mixed model (BLMM) provides a versatile tool with regard to assessing correlation. However, BLMMs often assume that all individuals are drawn from a single homogenous population where the individual trajectories are distributed smoothly around population average. Methods Using longitudinal mean deviation (MD) and visual acuity (VA) from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS), we demonstrated strategies to better understand the correlation between multivariate longitudinal data in the presence of potential heterogeneity. Conditional correlation (i.e., marginal correlation given random effects) was calculated to describe how the association between longitudinal outcomes evolved over time within specific subpopulation. The impact of heterogeneity on correlation was also assessed by simulated data. Results There was a significant positive correlation in both random intercepts (ρ = 0.278, 95% CI: 0.121–0.420) and random slopes (ρ = 0.579, 95% CI: 0.349–0.810) between longitudinal MD and VA, and the strength of correlation constantly increased over time. However, conditional correlation and simulation studies revealed that the correlation was induced primarily by participants with rapid deteriorating MD who only accounted for a small fraction of total samples. Conclusion Conditional correlation given random effects provides a robust estimate to describe the correlation between multivariate longitudinal data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity (NCT00000125)

Predicting clinical binary outcome using multivariate longitudinal data: Application to patients with newly diagnosed primary open-angle glaucoma

Primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) is a chronic, progressive, irreversible, and potentially blinding optic neuropathy. The risk of blindness due to progressive visual field (VF) loss varies substantially from patient to patient. Early identification of those patients destined to rapid progressive visual loss is crucial to prevent further damage. In this article, a latent class growth model (LCGM) was developed to predict the binary outcome of VF progression using longitudinal mean deviation (MD) and pattern standard deviation (PSD). Specifically, the trajectories of MD and PSD were summarized by a functional principal component (FPC) analysis, and the estimated FPC scores were used to identify subgroups (latent classes) of individuals with distinct patterns of MD and PSD trajectories. Probability of VF progression for an individual was then estimated as weighted average across latent classes, weighted by posterior probability of class membership given baseline covariates and longitudinal MD/PSD series. The model was applied to the participants with newly diagnosed POAG from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS), and the OHTS data was best fit by a model with 4 latent classes. Using the resultant optimal LCGM, the OHTS participants with and without VF progression could be accurately differentiated by incorporating longitudinal MD and PSD

Crowdsourced assessment of surgical skill proficiency in cataract surgery

OBJECTIVE: To test whether crowdsourced lay raters can accurately assess cataract surgical skills. DESIGN: Two-armed study: independent cross-sectional and longitudinal cohorts. SETTING: Washington University Department of Ophthalmology. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: Sixteen cataract surgeons with varying experience levels submitted cataract surgery videos to be graded by 5 experts and 300+ crowdworkers masked to surgeon experience. Cross-sectional study: 50 videos from surgeons ranging from first-year resident to attending physician, pooled by years of training. Longitudinal study: 28 videos obtained at regular intervals as residents progressed through 180 cases. Surgical skill was graded using the modified Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skill (mOSATS). Main outcome measures were overall technical performance, reliability indices, and correlation between expert and crowd mean scores. RESULTS: Experts demonstrated high interrater reliability and accurately predicted training level, establishing construct validity for the modified OSATS. Crowd scores were correlated with (r = 0.865, p \u3c 0.0001) but consistently higher than expert scores for first, second, and third-year residents (p \u3c 0.0001, paired t-test). Longer surgery duration negatively correlated with training level (r = -0.855, p \u3c 0.0001) and expert score (r = -0.927, p \u3c 0.0001). The longitudinal dataset reproduced cross-sectional study findings for crowd and expert comparisons. A regression equation transforming crowd score plus video length into expert score was derived from the cross-sectional dataset (r CONCLUSIONS: Crowdsourced rankings correlated with expert scores, but were not equivalent; crowd scores overestimated technical competency, especially for novice surgeons. A novel approach of adjusting crowd scores with surgery duration generated a more accurate predictive model for surgical skill. More studies are needed before crowdsourcing can be reliably used for assessing surgical proficiency

Stereo Photo Measured ONH Shape Predicts Development of POAG in Subjects With Ocular Hypertension

To identify objective, quantitative optic nerve head (ONH) structural features and model the contributions of glaucoma

A Common Variant in MIR182 Is Associated With Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma in the NEIGHBORHOOD Consortium

PURPOSE. Noncoding microRNAs (miRNAs) have been implicated in the pathogenesis of glaucoma. We aimed to identify common variants in miRNA coding genes (MIR) associated with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG). METHODS. Using the NEIGHBORHOOD data set (3853 cases/33,480 controls with European ancestry), we first assessed the relation between 85 variants in 76 MIR genes and overall POAG. Subtype-specific analyses were performed in high-tension glaucoma (HTG) and normal-tension glaucoma subsets. Second, we examined the expression of miR-182, which was associated with POAG, in postmortem human ocular tissues (ciliary body, cornea, retina, and trabecular meshwork [TM]), using miRNA sequencing (miRNA-Seq) and droplet digital PCR (ddPCR). Third, miR-182 expression was also examined in human aqueous humor (AH) by using miRNA-Seq. Fourth, exosomes secreted from primary human TM cells were examined for miR-182 expression by using miRNA-Seq. Fifth, using ddPCR we compared miR182 expression in AH between five HTG cases and five controls. RESULTS. Only rs76481776 in MIR182 gene was associated with POAG after adjustment for multiple comparisons (odds ratio [OR] ¼ 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11–1.42, P ¼ 0.0002). Subtype analysis indicated that the association was primarily in the HTG subset (OR ¼ 1.26, 95% CI: 1.08–1.47, P ¼ 0.004). The risk allele T has been associated with elevated miR-182 expression in vitro. Data from ddPCR and miRNA-Seq confirmed miR-182 expression in all examined ocular tissues and TM-derived exosomes. Interestingly, miR-182 expression in AH was 2-fold higher in HTG patients than nonglaucoma controls (P ¼ 0.03) without controlling for medication treatment. CONCLUSIONS. Our integrative study is the first to associate rs76481776 with POAG via elevated miR-182 expression

A Common Variant in MIR182 Is Associated With Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma in the NEIGHBORHOOD Consortium

PURPOSE. Noncoding microRNAs (miRNAs) have been implicated in the pathogenesis of glaucoma. We aimed to identify common variants in miRNA coding genes (MIR) associated with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG). METHODS. Using the NEIGHBORHOOD data set (3853 cases/33,480 controls with European ancestry), we first assessed the relation between 85 variants in 76 MIR genes and overall POAG. Subtype-specific analyses were performed in high-tension glaucoma (HTG) and normal-tension glaucoma subsets. Second, we examined the expression of miR-182, which was associated with POAG, in postmortem human ocular tissues (ciliary body, cornea, retina, and trabecular meshwork [TM]), using miRNA sequencing (miRNA-Seq) and droplet digital PCR (ddPCR). Third, miR-182 expression was also examined in human aqueous humor (AH) by using miRNA-Seq. Fourth, exosomes secreted from primary human TM cells were examined for miR-182 expression by using miRNA-Seq. Fifth, using ddPCR we compared miR182 expression in AH between five HTG cases and five controls. RESULTS. Only rs76481776 in MIR182 gene was associated with POAG after adjustment for multiple comparisons (odds ratio [OR] ¼ 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11–1.42, P ¼ 0.0002). Subtype analysis indicated that the association was primarily in the HTG subset (OR ¼ 1.26, 95% CI: 1.08–1.47, P ¼ 0.004). The risk allele T has been associated with elevated miR-182 expression in vitro. Data from ddPCR and miRNA-Seq confirmed miR-182 expression in all examined ocular tissues and TM-derived exosomes. Interestingly, miR-182 expression in AH was 2-fold higher in HTG patients than nonglaucoma controls (P ¼ 0.03) without controlling for medication treatment. CONCLUSIONS. Our integrative study is the first to associate rs76481776 with POAG via elevated miR-182 expression